Abstract

This study provides the first decade-long, region-disaggregated assessment of global disaster risk using the World Risk Index (WRI) time-series for 181 countries from 2011 to 2021 (N = 1,912). We merged the eleven annual datasets into a balanced SPSS panel and calculated descriptive statistics, continental averages, and linear slopes for the WRI and its five components—Exposure, Vulnerability, Susceptibility, Lack of Coping Capacities, and Lack of Adaptive Capacities. Results show that the global mean WRI edged upward despite a 6% decline in average vulnerability because physical exposure remained constant and immediate coping capacities deteriorated in three of five regions. Africa experienced the sharpest rise, with mean risk climbing above fifteen by 2019, driven by escalating exposure and the world’s weakest coping systems. In contrast, Europe maintained the lowest risk (<4) and achieved the largest gains in adaptive capacity. Component trends diverged: susceptibility and adaptive deficits fell in most regions, while coping deficits either stagnated or worsened, revealing an emerging preparedness gap. A factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirms that regional factors explain the overwhelming share of variance (R² = 1.00), underscoring the spatial concentration of risk. The findings reinforce the Sendai Framework’s call for region-specific strategies that combine hazard-proof planning with investments in emergency response systems, especially in the Global South.