Abstract
This paper constructs a simulation model of China’s Territorial Spatial Planning based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework from the perspective of improving the systematic and comprehensive forecasting of land use demand in the study of land resource allocation, with the goal of rationally allocating inter-regional land resources. Taking economic, social and ecological factors into account, and aiming at rationally assessing land demand, the model realizes the endogenous analysis of land factors, simulates the land demand under high-quality development, helps to improve the efficiency of inter-regional land allocation, and provides a scientific basis for policymakers to formulate a land resource allocation strategy. By applying China’s Territorial Spatial Planning and simulating different scenarios, we can obtain the following results: (1) Total factor productivity (TFP) increase can significantly improve the economic development of each region and the level of land demand for non-agricultural production; for every 1% increase in TFP, the real GDP of the whole country will increase by 1.48%, and the total demand for non-agricultural production land will rise by 0.19%. (2) From the regional level, compared with the central and western regions, the overall land demand in the eastern region will be more affected than that in the central and western regions. (3) From the perspective of land use types, arable land and grassland will show a decreasing trend, while forest land and construction land will show an increasing trend.
Details
Presentation Type
Theme
Economic, Social, and Cultural Context
KEYWORDS
Land Resource Allocation, Territorial Spatial Planning Policy, Computable General Equilibrium
