Abstract
Africa’s most pressing issues in recent years have been the effects of climate change on food security. Climate change’s disruption of weather patterns and agricultural output results in food insecurity. In this paper, we measure the impact of climate change on food security using a food security Index (FSI) and various econometric models. Food security data was taken from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) statistics database, while climate displacement data was taken from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s (IDMC) database from 2000-2023. FSI was created using principal component analysis (PCA) from 11 variable factors and panel data. FSI is used as a dependent variable, and climate change is treated as an independent variable. Climate change is measured by forest fires and fossil fuels CO2 emissions. The stationarity of the panel data has been checked through the ADF test. The cointegration technique has been used to determine whether or not there is any long-term relationship between Climate change and FSI. According to the cointegration analysis, food security and climate change have a negative long-term relationship. Based on the results, we used the VECM to help the model adjust for any deviations from this equilibrium in the short term, ensuring that over time, the variables tend to move back towards their shared equilibrium. In the next stage, the Granger causality test was done to know whether CO2 emission Granger causes FSI or climate change can provide statistically significant information to predict future values of FSI in the Granger causality framework.
Presenters
Arijit BanerjeeCollege Teacher, Commerce, Shibpur Dinobundhoo Institution, West Bengal, India
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Food Production and Sustainability
KEYWORDS
Climate change, Food security, PCA, Cointegration, VECM, Granger Casualty test
