On the Concept of Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans

Abstract

Over the past decade or so, the term risk has become a more controversial subject among consensus standards developers. Depending upon the context, a number of various definitions can be found for the term ‘risk’. A number of international (ISO) standards define risk as the ‘effect of uncertainty’ omitting the word ‘objectives’. (ISO 45001, ISO 14001, ISO 9000) Based on the definitions, it appears the management systems standards and the risk management standards consider ‘uncertainty’ as the ‘source’ of risk. Risk, depending upon the context, can mean different things to different groups. From an organizational level, Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) practitioners view risk from hazards, while production and operational managers see risk coming from operations. At the senior executive level, a much broader view is taken to include financial and strategic risks that threaten business objectives. These various perspectives have led to the development of multiple definitions for the term risk, raising some confusion as to its universal meaning. Risk management and management systems standards have their own definitions of risk while safety standards and dictionaries describe risk differently. For the benefit of those that manage risk, it may be time to re-examine the concept of risk and understand its true meaning. In this paper, the author discusses current viewpoints on risk, uncertainty, opportunity, and unique events known as Black Swans, and Grey Rhinos.

Presenters

Georgi Popov
Department Chair, Professor, Occupational Risk and Safety Science, University of Central Missouri, Missouri, United States