Abstract
If atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are projected to nearly double by 2050, resulting in an average temperature increase of 4.4°C by the end of the 21st century, our study projected that over 53* percent of the olive-growing regions along Türkiye’s Aegean Coast —which accounts for 80% of the country’s total olive production, might become unsuitable for cultivating olive trees by 2050.This is a significant concern, as Türkiye ranks among the top three countries in the world for olive and olive oil production between 2023-2024. The good news is just because a region becomes less suitable for olive tree agriculture doesn’t mean it’s impossible to grow olive trees there. A loss of suitability means that more effort and resources are needed to make olive trees grow viable and productive. Adapting to climate change in olive production could involve introducing or expanding irrigation systems or terracing hillsides to optimize growing conditions in milder temperatures. In response to changing climates, olive cultivation may also shift to newly suitable areas, or farmers could explore different olive varieties that are more resilient under future conditions. But before all of that, we need to determine where to allocate resources and efforts by understanding the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems by 2050 and how it will affect olive trees in those ecosystems. Utilizing GIS we conducted spatial analysis for the olive trees on Turkiye’s Aegean Coast to understand the potential impact of terrestrial ecosystem changes on olive groves by 2050.
Details
Presentation Type
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Terrestrial Ecosystems, Projected Terrestrial Ecosystems, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Crops
