Abstract
Climate change profoundly impacts hydro-climatic systems, altering precipitation, temperature, and drought dynamics. This study investigates contrasting trends in Ethiopia and South Africa under historical, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 datasets. The analysis encompasses national averages and regional clusters to capture both spatial and temporal variability. In Ethiopia, annual precipitation increases by 1.2 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 2.5 mm/year under SSP5-8.5, potentially benefiting agriculture but elevating flood risks. Conversely, South Africa experiences declines in precipitation of 0.25 mm/year and 0.32 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, likely to exacerbate water scarcity and compromising agricultural resilience. Both countries see substantial increases in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature extremes. Ethiopia’s PET rises by 0.67 mm/year and 0.97 mm/year, while South Africa’s PET increases by 1.14 mm/year and 1.83 mm/year. Temperature increases in Ethiopia are more pronounced in minimum temperatures, while South Africa shows similar rate of increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Drought analysis using SPEI and SPI indices reveals divergent trends: Ethiopia generally experiences decreased drought occurrence, severity and frequency, whereas South Africa faces increased drought occurrences and its properties, particularly under high emissions. These trends vary across clusters, highlighting the need for tailored adaptation strategies in each region. Despite its comprehensive approach, the study acknowledges limitations, including uncertainties in climate model projections and the need for more localized data. Understanding the interplay between hydro-climatic variables and drought dynamics is essential for developing adaptive strategies, improving water management, and ensuring agricultural sustainability amid evolving climatic conditions.
Presenters
Achamyeleh MengistuPostdoctoral Fellow, Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Free State, South Africa
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Hydro-climatic variables; Precipitation trends; Drought occurrence; Potential evapotranspiration; Climate change; Ethiopia; South Africa
