Abstract
This research explores approaches for long-term food systems planning in ways that account for and respond to uncertainty in the face of global climate change. Using Revelstoke, Canada, as a case study the project involved researchers working with community stakeholders (1) to consider a scenario that captures an equitable and resilient local food system, and (2) to explore scenario alternatives that respond to external trends and shocks as per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The research methods involved a stakeholder workshop, where a future food system scenario was presented to participants via a digital visualization tool and then activities were done to facilitate an exploration of how the scenario would change under IPCC’s SSP1 (sustainability) and SSP3 (regional rivalry) scenarios. These activities stimulated thinking about the features of the scenarios, outcomes of the scenarios (with respect to climate action, biodiversity, community health, and social justice), and a timeline of events for the scenarios (from current to 2100). Results from the work include two emergent scenarios (i.e., the initial scenario changed as per SPP1 and SSP3 trends and conditions), with the SPP1-influenced scenario involving increases in technological advancement and the SSP3-influenced scenario involving a higher degree of localization of food systems due to isolationist policies and local culture. The study developed new ways of qualitatively exploring and examining uncertainties in scenario planning, and the approach used in this research can be applied by other researchers and practitioners to support long-term planning in their communities.
Presenters
Robert NewellCanada Research Chair, School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads University, British Columbia, Canada
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
2025 Special Focus—Sustainable Development for a Dynamic Planet: Lessons, Priorities, and Solutions
KEYWORDS
Local food systems, IPCC, Scenarios, Long-term planning, Uncertainty
